I’ll Be Back!

Hi friends,

If you’ve been following my blog and posts for some time now, you might be wondering….. WHERE THE HECK DID SHE GO?!

Well, I didn’t disappear. Just Calculus II took over my soul and now I have been figuratively chained to my desk studying for it. (If you’ve taken the course, you definitely get what I’m going through.)

So long story short, I will be blogging again shortly….I appreciate your patience and please send caffeine!!!!

Hugs and kisses

-M

(Caution: I may be staying up late tonight and studying right now as I am writing this post. THANK YOU AND GOODNIGHT!)

Why Does It Get Hot Before Summer?

Hello one and all!

It’s officially summer. So why in the world does it get so hot before summer officially starts? In the video above, I explain why. As always, I hope you enjoy it.

Please subscribe to my youtube channel. The link is at the end of the video. Thanks so much and I will see you on Friday for your weekend forecast.

Until then,

-M

Denver Forecast 4/17/16

5day

Snow snow go away, come again some other day. Actually, we are nearing the end of our snowy weather!

At least, that’s what the models say for now…..

IN BRIEF: 

As you can see above, it won’t be long until we get a reprieve!

Currently, the low pressure system that ended up dumping on us for the lest few days has turned into a high pressure system. In other words, the storm that is sitting over us is going to move!

Monday: 37/27 Slight Chance of Rain

Tuesday: 48/31 Slight Chance of Rain

Wednesday: 56/34 Sun!!!!!

Thursday: 62/36 Sun!

Friday: 66/43 Get your tan on because sun!!!

IN DEPTH: 

So let’s talk about the low pressure system that hit us, shall we?

That low brought in a lot of moisture to the Denver-Metro area. I’ve heard a little over an inch of moisture hit our area. Which, I don’t have to tell you, is always welcome here.

Snow totals ran pretty high, like in the high country. Conifer, Nederlands, Evergreen….they all got dumped on! More than 2 feet of snow in some places! But in the Denver-Metro area, some saw as low as 5 inches. So, as far as the total that the models said was going to happen last Thursday, it was pretty dead on.

Which brings me to this week….

Currently we are sitting in what us meteorologists call a “blocking pattern.” A blocking pattern is a series of low and high pressures that basically align themselves in just the right way, that we stay in the same weather for a long period of time. I took a picture of it, but for some reason, now the media file which holds all my pictures isn’t working. It’s amazing how technology can get in the way sometimes!!!

So lucky for us, this blocking patter over us is going to get broken and we will start seeing those gorgeous spring-like days here soon!

I hope you all enjoy your week.

For more weather geekiness follow me on my social media handles!

Until then,

-M

 

Winter Weather Forecast for this Weekend

Snow pic

Hello everyone!

Just because it is April, doesn’t mean it is going to act like Spring this weekend….this weather just goes to show, out of all the things to forecast, precipitation is the hardest!

Let’s start with my last post (you can read it here). Last Sunday, my attention was called to a Facebook post from a meteorologist who posted an image from the ECMWF model stating that there could be up to 40 inches of snow on Friday. Not only is it not good to post from a model you need licensing permission from, it also is not good to post something from just a model WAY in advance.

As I said in my last post, models change a lot and it is beneficial for a meteorologist to hold off on forecasting until you get closer to the actual time something is supposed to happen.

So, now I can say what is going to happen….

IN BRIEF FORECAST:

Expect snow to start on Saturday. Unfortunately, model guidance is really sketchy about when it is supposed to happen so I would say just expect it to start snowing sometime tomorrow.

And then, it will continue to snow it’s little heart out over the weekend until Monday. I’m going to go with snow totals anywhere from 3-8 inches and it is going to be pretty sloppy and dense.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s the whole weekend. Because of how dense and wet the snow will be this weekend, expect the roads to get pretty slick at night and into Sunday and possibly Monday.

I will have more on the start of the week’s forecast on Sunday evening. I will most likely be live blogging this weekend during the snow event. Keep it here for the latest on the snowstorm.

IN DEPTH FORECAST (FROM MY FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CLASS):

Yesterday, a low pressure system set itself up in the Pacific Northwest. You can see it here in the satellite imagery. Notice the swirl over Washington, Oregon and Idaho. When we see a swirl like that, we want to know which way it is spinning. Since it is spinning cyclonically (counter-clockwise), it is a low. If it were anti-cyclonic (clockwise), it would be a high.

Snow pic

Vis

IR

Plotting current pressure and wind speed at 700 mb on the HRRR model to locate shortwaves, jet streams and pressure systems, there is currently a deep trough over the western part of the United States. This pattern is indicative of storms forming over the Western part of the United States. Also, there are high wind speed at the 700 mb over the Pacific Northwest. Putting the low pressure information from the satellite imagery together with the high wind speeds in below, this indicates that the low pressure system in the northwest is moving southward.

jet stream

The solutions from the NAM (Figure 5), ECMWF (Figure 6) and GFS (Figure 7) for the next 84 hours are much different from each other, especially in pressure and precipitation. In terms of pressure, all three differ in how close together the isobars are and where a pressure system is located. In Figure 5, the GFS depicts very tight isobars in the center of Colorado while the center of the low that travels through the state over the weekend ends up in the southeastern corner of Wyoming. The GFS shows more evenly spaced out isobars with the low in Central Wyoming by Monday. The solution for the ECMWF shows the center of the low sitting over the southwesterly corner of Wyoming with the bottom corner still over most of Colorado and Utah. All three solutions indicate storms over Colorado, but vary in location.  

The NAM and GFS precipitation models in Figure 5 and 6 show varying degrees of precipitation over Denver on Monday. The NAM model shows 0.03 inches of liquid equivalent while the GFS shows .3 inches. The GFS shows that precipitation will be mostly throughout Colorado while the NAM shows the more heavier snow will be in Wyoming. Either way, both indicate there will be some sort of precipitation on Monday.

 Nam

 (Figure 5. NAM MSLP and Precipitation)

GFS(Figure 6. GFS MSLP and Precipitation)

EURO(Figure 7. ECMWF MSLP)

Using the GFS40 Model to plot precipitation accumulation values (Figure 8), the model shows 0.3 liquid water equivalent falling over Saturday evening. Plotting temperature (Figure 9), the temperatures at that time will be in the low to mid 30s which is indicative of snow or a rain snow-mixture falling.

GFS Precip

(Figure 8. GFS40  Precipitation Accumulation Sunday 5:00 z)

GFS Temp

(Figure 9. GFS40 Temperature Map Sunday 5:00 z)

Conversely, the NAM Precipitation Model (Figure 10) shows a little less than 1 inch of liquid water equivalent falling and temperatures (Figure 11) in low to mid 30s as well which indicates more snow or a possible rain-snow mixture. Using a 10:1 ratio rule when estimating snow accumulation from liquid water equivalent, the GFS shows 3 inches of accumulation while the NAM shows 8 to 9 inches. By looking at both model runs, the Denver-Metro area can expect a moderate amount of snow over the weekend.NAM Sun

(Figure 10. NAM Precipitation Map Sunday 5:00 z)

NAM Sun Temp

(Figure 11. NAM Temperature Map Sunday 5:00 z)

 

 

Alright now folks……

wp_ss_20160410_0001

(Radar pic from “My Radar App” of thunderstorm activity earlier today)

Hi all,

I should have gotten out this sooner…..however, a freak spring cold had me down for the count today. Now it is late at night and I HAVE to put my two cents in.

I was alerted to a Facebook post stating that the EURO model is forecasting a crazy amount of snowfall for the end of this week in the Denver Metro area. Like dozens of inches of precipitation…..

Although my job would get so much cooler by the end of this week, sorry folks, it isn’t time to learn how to convert into cubits and start gathering all the animals two by two. Or start pulling out the skis in this instance.

Let me start by first saying this, when it comes to predicting weather on any model, usually it is only good about 3 days out. Yes, some of our models are built to go out longer and some of the people on TV build out their forecasts to 7 days. Truth is, the reliability goes down the farther our forecast goes out. So any information about what happens 5 days from now is super sketchy.

Although, I am a fledgling meteorologist, my forecasting prof told us before we could even touch our computers that don’t trust the models 100%. Use your own knowledge and look at pretty much all the models you can to make your predictions. I have to tell my husband sometimes that I can’t just crank out a forecast in 10 minutes because I have a lot of stuff to look at before I make my deductions on what the weather is being like. So just having faith in one model is…….very silly. (Especially the EURO! Most folks are not even allowed to broadcast that!)

So, my letter of caution to you, the weather information consumer, is to question information if a meteorologist goes off about one model. Especially one with extreme projections.

Now as for this week (Sorry no pictures! I’m sick as a dog this week and hope to do better next week):

 

Monday:

Rainy

H: 56

L: 39

Tuesday:

Sunny. Slight Chance of T-Storms later in the afternoon

H: 67

L: 43

Wednesday:

Sunny

H: 72

L: 48

Thursday:

Sunny

H: 73

L: 48

Friday:

Rainy: Up to an inch of water equivalent

H: 64

L: 48

 

As always, if I see anything crazy in the coming days, I will keep you abreast on here. Goodnight everyone! I’m gonna go crack open another box of tissues and head to bed.

Until then,

-M

 

 

 

Denver 5-Day Forecast 3/29

Mar29Forecast

Hello!

Welcome to a new week! Here’s the 5-day forecast. Expect things to get wet one Wednesday! We get a tiny reprieve on Thursday with sunshine in the first part of the day and then a slight chance of snow Thursday night.

Then sunshine and wonderful temperatures for the weekend. Finally, some spring!

I hope to be doing more of these forecasts each week. At least I can say there will be something every Tuesday at 5:00 p.m.

Have a great week!

-M

 

Out in the Colorado snow

Hello! If you are reading this vlog, you now know we survived a crazy blizzard!

This storm dropped more than a foot of snow in some places and in the mountains, more than 2 feet of snow!

So what does a  very mature future meteorologist do? Go driving to check it all out of course!

Want to see what CO looks like after a huge blizzard? Watch the vlog above! Thanks so much for your support.

Until then,

-M

Denver Blizzard Live Blog

1:53 P.M.

In brief: 

So for temperatures with this storm….you wouldn’t believe that most models are going say is it going to be in the 50s tomorrow. That’s right, I SAID 50. So, I would say expect A LOT of flooding and the wet sloppy snow tomorrow. High should be in the 50-53 range. Low will be in the 20s.

I’ve also read the latest forecast from the national weather service. They say the blizzard warning (it’s a warning because it is happening right now.) will be in effect until tonight. Snow totals expected to get up to 2 feet in some areas.

In-depth: 

First let me say how dissatisfied I am with the graphics card for my modeling software. It sucks!

Now that that is over, let’s talk temperature and snow depth. Since my graphics card sucks, I mostly have MOS products offered by the national weather service. And here is what they say for temps tomorrow:

GFS MOS: 51/25

NAM MOS: 52/25

GFSX MOS: 51/25

Short to say, with a higher temperature like that, it is going to get really wet and sloppy and gross for tomorrow. I’ve been shoveling outside in preparation for the melt. Considering if has exceeded a foot here and we can now only describe the height by if it is taller than my dogs or not.

Which brings me to snow depth….as mentioned above the NWS is predicting approximately 2 feet in some areas. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is at 18 inches at my house. Needless to say, this has been crazy at least. As someone who has only lived in Colorado for 3 years now, this is the most I’ve seen in the state since then. My husband who has lived here all his life says it is close to the blizzard of 2003.

It is A LOT!

So right now, not a lot to say anymore about tomorrow. If anything changes I will keep you posted.

11:50 A.M. 

In brief: Winds will continue on the Eastern side of Colorado until about midnight tonight according to the latest model run. This information also tells us that most of the stormy weather will be on its way out overnight.

ALSO: Traction laws are in effect for Denver-Metro area. You have to have chains, all wheel or 4-wheel drive or some kind of traction tire in order to travel around town. For more info about the laws click here.

The in-depth version: 

Pressure Map

So, besides when the wind is going to leave, I wouldn’t be doing due diligence without telling you about the wind. Up above is the latest model run of the HRRR of pressure reduced to sea-level pressure.

To non-meteorologists, that may be unclear so let me explain. Pressure reduced to sea-level pressure means I am plotting the pressure at the surface. However, pressure is different at different elevations so how do I compare pressures at different locations. The answer? I use a formula to take any pressure reading and convert it into what it would be at sea-level, thus I can compare.

Now, what the heck does pressure do with the winds. The map above and the squiggly lines show me equal lines of pressure (a line telling me where the pressure is the same). The closer those lines are together, the higher the winds.

isobars

So in the picture above, you see how close the lines are together in that bulls-eye, over Colorado, that means, well the obvious, that it is really windy (it is hard to see here but that bulls-eye is over Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico.). Unlike over Texas and Oklahoma where they are more spread out.

What I do to track the storm to see when the winds could potentially leave is watch the lines get farther apart. Which in the picture below (time stamp is cut out. Sorry guys) won’t be until mid night tonight.

isobars leaving

So hunker down. It’s going to be cold for a little longer.

 

10:57 AM

HRRR Run

Good very snowy morning to you.

If you live in Denver, I do not have to tell you about the blizzard outside. A snow storm developed overnight over the area leaving up to more than a foot in some areas.

I’ve looked at all the surface observations in the areas. The highest wind speed and gusts recorded happened just a half hour ago at Denver International Airport with winds at 41 mph and gusts above 50 mph.

That being said, I just heard that Denver International Airport is at the moment CLOSED.

Here’s what I can tell you about the future of this storm. According to the latest HRRR model, the storm will leave our area later tonight. The photo above shows that the last bit of the storm will leave our state after 5 p.m.

I will delving more into the forecast throught the day. Keep it here for more information or on my social media pages.

 

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