Denver Forecast 4/22/16

Temp

Howdy everyone!

You know what all that red means on the map above?! It is going to be in the 70s this weekend!

Yep, following last week with the bitter cold and snow…we have sunshine in the forecast for this weekend! But beware, some more cloudy weather may be ahead for the next week. I’ll keep you posted as always on this blog.

So here is what your forecast for this weekend:

IN BRIEF:

Friday: High of 68

Saturday:

High: 73

Low: 49

SUNSHINE!

Sunday:

High: 67

Low: 44

SUNSHINE!

IN DEPTH:

The Metro area will benefit from what remains of a high pressure system. You can see it plotted in the map below:

Pic 1.png

As you recall, the reason for last weekends snow storm was a low pressure system that came from the Pacific Northwest. That low, by the way, has almost worked its way to the East Coast by now. Friends on the East Coast, you will have some stormy weather to contend with this weekend.

But true to the way things go in the atmosphere, the high pressure system has taken over and high pressure= gorgeous sunny weather in springtime. And with the high pressure and more clear skies brings more solar radiation which brings warmer temps to our area.

You can see temperatures plotted on the GFS 40 model below that most of Eastern Colorado will receive 70s on Saturday! Some of Southern Colorado will see 80s too (white color)

Temp

But this nice weather may end soon. We have another low pressure system that may affect our weather in the next week. As seen in the picture below, a low will form over Montana and Wyoming at the beginning of next week. We are at the bottom of the low in Colorado, but it could very well affect us soon. Some models are projecting almost an inch of rain on Tuesday, but I like to have caution and will say we won’t get much rain in the beginning of the week.

Pic 2

I will be keeping an eye on the weather as always this weekend. I will have more on your next work week on Sunday.

Until then, enjoy the sunshine!

-M

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Denver Forecast 4/17/16

5day

Snow snow go away, come again some other day. Actually, we are nearing the end of our snowy weather!

At least, that’s what the models say for now…..

IN BRIEF: 

As you can see above, it won’t be long until we get a reprieve!

Currently, the low pressure system that ended up dumping on us for the lest few days has turned into a high pressure system. In other words, the storm that is sitting over us is going to move!

Monday: 37/27 Slight Chance of Rain

Tuesday: 48/31 Slight Chance of Rain

Wednesday: 56/34 Sun!!!!!

Thursday: 62/36 Sun!

Friday: 66/43 Get your tan on because sun!!!

IN DEPTH: 

So let’s talk about the low pressure system that hit us, shall we?

That low brought in a lot of moisture to the Denver-Metro area. I’ve heard a little over an inch of moisture hit our area. Which, I don’t have to tell you, is always welcome here.

Snow totals ran pretty high, like in the high country. Conifer, Nederlands, Evergreen….they all got dumped on! More than 2 feet of snow in some places! But in the Denver-Metro area, some saw as low as 5 inches. So, as far as the total that the models said was going to happen last Thursday, it was pretty dead on.

Which brings me to this week….

Currently we are sitting in what us meteorologists call a “blocking pattern.” A blocking pattern is a series of low and high pressures that basically align themselves in just the right way, that we stay in the same weather for a long period of time. I took a picture of it, but for some reason, now the media file which holds all my pictures isn’t working. It’s amazing how technology can get in the way sometimes!!!

So lucky for us, this blocking patter over us is going to get broken and we will start seeing those gorgeous spring-like days here soon!

I hope you all enjoy your week.

For more weather geekiness follow me on my social media handles!

Until then,

-M

 

Winter Weather Forecast for this Weekend

Snow pic

Hello everyone!

Just because it is April, doesn’t mean it is going to act like Spring this weekend….this weather just goes to show, out of all the things to forecast, precipitation is the hardest!

Let’s start with my last post (you can read it here). Last Sunday, my attention was called to a Facebook post from a meteorologist who posted an image from the ECMWF model stating that there could be up to 40 inches of snow on Friday. Not only is it not good to post from a model you need licensing permission from, it also is not good to post something from just a model WAY in advance.

As I said in my last post, models change a lot and it is beneficial for a meteorologist to hold off on forecasting until you get closer to the actual time something is supposed to happen.

So, now I can say what is going to happen….

IN BRIEF FORECAST:

Expect snow to start on Saturday. Unfortunately, model guidance is really sketchy about when it is supposed to happen so I would say just expect it to start snowing sometime tomorrow.

And then, it will continue to snow it’s little heart out over the weekend until Monday. I’m going to go with snow totals anywhere from 3-8 inches and it is going to be pretty sloppy and dense.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s the whole weekend. Because of how dense and wet the snow will be this weekend, expect the roads to get pretty slick at night and into Sunday and possibly Monday.

I will have more on the start of the week’s forecast on Sunday evening. I will most likely be live blogging this weekend during the snow event. Keep it here for the latest on the snowstorm.

IN DEPTH FORECAST (FROM MY FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CLASS):

Yesterday, a low pressure system set itself up in the Pacific Northwest. You can see it here in the satellite imagery. Notice the swirl over Washington, Oregon and Idaho. When we see a swirl like that, we want to know which way it is spinning. Since it is spinning cyclonically (counter-clockwise), it is a low. If it were anti-cyclonic (clockwise), it would be a high.

Snow pic

Vis

IR

Plotting current pressure and wind speed at 700 mb on the HRRR model to locate shortwaves, jet streams and pressure systems, there is currently a deep trough over the western part of the United States. This pattern is indicative of storms forming over the Western part of the United States. Also, there are high wind speed at the 700 mb over the Pacific Northwest. Putting the low pressure information from the satellite imagery together with the high wind speeds in below, this indicates that the low pressure system in the northwest is moving southward.

jet stream

The solutions from the NAM (Figure 5), ECMWF (Figure 6) and GFS (Figure 7) for the next 84 hours are much different from each other, especially in pressure and precipitation. In terms of pressure, all three differ in how close together the isobars are and where a pressure system is located. In Figure 5, the GFS depicts very tight isobars in the center of Colorado while the center of the low that travels through the state over the weekend ends up in the southeastern corner of Wyoming. The GFS shows more evenly spaced out isobars with the low in Central Wyoming by Monday. The solution for the ECMWF shows the center of the low sitting over the southwesterly corner of Wyoming with the bottom corner still over most of Colorado and Utah. All three solutions indicate storms over Colorado, but vary in location.  

The NAM and GFS precipitation models in Figure 5 and 6 show varying degrees of precipitation over Denver on Monday. The NAM model shows 0.03 inches of liquid equivalent while the GFS shows .3 inches. The GFS shows that precipitation will be mostly throughout Colorado while the NAM shows the more heavier snow will be in Wyoming. Either way, both indicate there will be some sort of precipitation on Monday.

 Nam

 (Figure 5. NAM MSLP and Precipitation)

GFS(Figure 6. GFS MSLP and Precipitation)

EURO(Figure 7. ECMWF MSLP)

Using the GFS40 Model to plot precipitation accumulation values (Figure 8), the model shows 0.3 liquid water equivalent falling over Saturday evening. Plotting temperature (Figure 9), the temperatures at that time will be in the low to mid 30s which is indicative of snow or a rain snow-mixture falling.

GFS Precip

(Figure 8. GFS40  Precipitation Accumulation Sunday 5:00 z)

GFS Temp

(Figure 9. GFS40 Temperature Map Sunday 5:00 z)

Conversely, the NAM Precipitation Model (Figure 10) shows a little less than 1 inch of liquid water equivalent falling and temperatures (Figure 11) in low to mid 30s as well which indicates more snow or a possible rain-snow mixture. Using a 10:1 ratio rule when estimating snow accumulation from liquid water equivalent, the GFS shows 3 inches of accumulation while the NAM shows 8 to 9 inches. By looking at both model runs, the Denver-Metro area can expect a moderate amount of snow over the weekend.NAM Sun

(Figure 10. NAM Precipitation Map Sunday 5:00 z)

NAM Sun Temp

(Figure 11. NAM Temperature Map Sunday 5:00 z)

 

 

Alright now folks……

wp_ss_20160410_0001

(Radar pic from “My Radar App” of thunderstorm activity earlier today)

Hi all,

I should have gotten out this sooner…..however, a freak spring cold had me down for the count today. Now it is late at night and I HAVE to put my two cents in.

I was alerted to a Facebook post stating that the EURO model is forecasting a crazy amount of snowfall for the end of this week in the Denver Metro area. Like dozens of inches of precipitation…..

Although my job would get so much cooler by the end of this week, sorry folks, it isn’t time to learn how to convert into cubits and start gathering all the animals two by two. Or start pulling out the skis in this instance.

Let me start by first saying this, when it comes to predicting weather on any model, usually it is only good about 3 days out. Yes, some of our models are built to go out longer and some of the people on TV build out their forecasts to 7 days. Truth is, the reliability goes down the farther our forecast goes out. So any information about what happens 5 days from now is super sketchy.

Although, I am a fledgling meteorologist, my forecasting prof told us before we could even touch our computers that don’t trust the models 100%. Use your own knowledge and look at pretty much all the models you can to make your predictions. I have to tell my husband sometimes that I can’t just crank out a forecast in 10 minutes because I have a lot of stuff to look at before I make my deductions on what the weather is being like. So just having faith in one model is…….very silly. (Especially the EURO! Most folks are not even allowed to broadcast that!)

So, my letter of caution to you, the weather information consumer, is to question information if a meteorologist goes off about one model. Especially one with extreme projections.

Now as for this week (Sorry no pictures! I’m sick as a dog this week and hope to do better next week):

 

Monday:

Rainy

H: 56

L: 39

Tuesday:

Sunny. Slight Chance of T-Storms later in the afternoon

H: 67

L: 43

Wednesday:

Sunny

H: 72

L: 48

Thursday:

Sunny

H: 73

L: 48

Friday:

Rainy: Up to an inch of water equivalent

H: 64

L: 48

 

As always, if I see anything crazy in the coming days, I will keep you abreast on here. Goodnight everyone! I’m gonna go crack open another box of tissues and head to bed.

Until then,

-M