Denver 5-Day Forecast 3/29

Mar29Forecast

Hello!

Welcome to a new week! Here’s the 5-day forecast. Expect things to get wet one Wednesday! We get a tiny reprieve on Thursday with sunshine in the first part of the day and then a slight chance of snow Thursday night.

Then sunshine and wonderful temperatures for the weekend. Finally, some spring!

I hope to be doing more of these forecasts each week. At least I can say there will be something every Tuesday at 5:00 p.m.

Have a great week!

-M

 

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Out in the Colorado snow

Hello! If you are reading this vlog, you now know we survived a crazy blizzard!

This storm dropped more than a foot of snow in some places and in the mountains, more than 2 feet of snow!

So what does a  very mature future meteorologist do? Go driving to check it all out of course!

Want to see what CO looks like after a huge blizzard? Watch the vlog above! Thanks so much for your support.

Until then,

-M

Denver Blizzard Live Blog

1:53 P.M.

In brief: 

So for temperatures with this storm….you wouldn’t believe that most models are going say is it going to be in the 50s tomorrow. That’s right, I SAID 50. So, I would say expect A LOT of flooding and the wet sloppy snow tomorrow. High should be in the 50-53 range. Low will be in the 20s.

I’ve also read the latest forecast from the national weather service. They say the blizzard warning (it’s a warning because it is happening right now.) will be in effect until tonight. Snow totals expected to get up to 2 feet in some areas.

In-depth: 

First let me say how dissatisfied I am with the graphics card for my modeling software. It sucks!

Now that that is over, let’s talk temperature and snow depth. Since my graphics card sucks, I mostly have MOS products offered by the national weather service. And here is what they say for temps tomorrow:

GFS MOS: 51/25

NAM MOS: 52/25

GFSX MOS: 51/25

Short to say, with a higher temperature like that, it is going to get really wet and sloppy and gross for tomorrow. I’ve been shoveling outside in preparation for the melt. Considering if has exceeded a foot here and we can now only describe the height by if it is taller than my dogs or not.

Which brings me to snow depth….as mentioned above the NWS is predicting approximately 2 feet in some areas. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is at 18 inches at my house. Needless to say, this has been crazy at least. As someone who has only lived in Colorado for 3 years now, this is the most I’ve seen in the state since then. My husband who has lived here all his life says it is close to the blizzard of 2003.

It is A LOT!

So right now, not a lot to say anymore about tomorrow. If anything changes I will keep you posted.

11:50 A.M. 

In brief: Winds will continue on the Eastern side of Colorado until about midnight tonight according to the latest model run. This information also tells us that most of the stormy weather will be on its way out overnight.

ALSO: Traction laws are in effect for Denver-Metro area. You have to have chains, all wheel or 4-wheel drive or some kind of traction tire in order to travel around town. For more info about the laws click here.

The in-depth version: 

Pressure Map

So, besides when the wind is going to leave, I wouldn’t be doing due diligence without telling you about the wind. Up above is the latest model run of the HRRR of pressure reduced to sea-level pressure.

To non-meteorologists, that may be unclear so let me explain. Pressure reduced to sea-level pressure means I am plotting the pressure at the surface. However, pressure is different at different elevations so how do I compare pressures at different locations. The answer? I use a formula to take any pressure reading and convert it into what it would be at sea-level, thus I can compare.

Now, what the heck does pressure do with the winds. The map above and the squiggly lines show me equal lines of pressure (a line telling me where the pressure is the same). The closer those lines are together, the higher the winds.

isobars

So in the picture above, you see how close the lines are together in that bulls-eye, over Colorado, that means, well the obvious, that it is really windy (it is hard to see here but that bulls-eye is over Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico.). Unlike over Texas and Oklahoma where they are more spread out.

What I do to track the storm to see when the winds could potentially leave is watch the lines get farther apart. Which in the picture below (time stamp is cut out. Sorry guys) won’t be until mid night tonight.

isobars leaving

So hunker down. It’s going to be cold for a little longer.

 

10:57 AM

HRRR Run

Good very snowy morning to you.

If you live in Denver, I do not have to tell you about the blizzard outside. A snow storm developed overnight over the area leaving up to more than a foot in some areas.

I’ve looked at all the surface observations in the areas. The highest wind speed and gusts recorded happened just a half hour ago at Denver International Airport with winds at 41 mph and gusts above 50 mph.

That being said, I just heard that Denver International Airport is at the moment CLOSED.

Here’s what I can tell you about the future of this storm. According to the latest HRRR model, the storm will leave our area later tonight. The photo above shows that the last bit of the storm will leave our state after 5 p.m.

I will delving more into the forecast throught the day. Keep it here for more information or on my social media pages.

 

FACEBOOK: WxWanderings or Megan Montgomery

 

TWITTER @Megan_Montgo

 

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Denver Area Forecast: 3/22/16

UPDATE (9:45 p.m. MDT): 

BLIZZARD WARNING in effect for the Denver-Metro area. National Weather Service estimates 6-12 inches  overnight. Will cause issues for the morning commute Wednesday morning. Please be safe and weather aware.

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It may seem sunny now, but just you wait, Denver, it is going to get chilly!

Yes, snow will replace the warm sunshine for those who live in the Denver-Metro area, probably overnight or Wednesday morning. I’m going to be conservative with the snow totals for this blog and say that we will get less than an inch.

With the change up in the weather, there will also be an increase of winds. Some meteorologists and models I have seen so far say gusts of approximately 40 mph.

But the good news is, it starts to heat up a smidge and we will see more stereotypical spring-like weather on Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers on Friday.

Hope all is well and as always be safe and weather aware.

Until then,

-M

It Will Never Be The Same

A long time ago (in  a galaxy not so far away), I had a TV meteorologist who I used to work give me some advice on going back to school. The one thing she said to me that really stuck (besides, well going back to school would be tough. I mean that was pretty important too) was “The way you look at the world will never be the same.” And ya know, she was right.

Little did I know how right she would be. That now instead of just looking up at the skies and seeing clouds or watching it snow or even trying to calm my dogs down during a thunderstorm that I would see it all differently in just a year of meteorology school.

Now I see a entirely different world than the one we are currently living in. I see clouds being formed by evaporation from the Earth and oceans with so many little water droplets being suspended in the air. I see layers of the atmosphere that each have their own characteristics that make them so unique. Like in this Skew-T screenshot I took a few days ago.

Skew-T

It may look like squiggly lines and numbers to the untrained eye but this tells weather folk about different levels of the atmosphere, it’s temperature, the winds in each layer and even where the possibility for precipitation will occur or even how spinny (yes, spinny. Don’t shake your head at me.) a storm could become (i.e. tornado).

Instead of it being breezy or so windy it could knock you and your loved one over, I not only think, we should really get inside, I wonder where did the wind come from and where is it going? Is it just winds traveling from high to low pressure or is part of a front too?

wind pic

Pic from a website that not only shows you where the winds are blowing on a map but also how fast they are going. You can see all the current winds in the world and where they are headed.

And even while I lay here in bed, writing this to you, and wondering if the symptoms from my migraine will ever end, I feel joy from looking outside my window at the clear blue sky and knowing that we are currently in a high pressure system.

No matter what happens with people or your day or even what will happen in the future, there is an entire world going on around you that is so complex and beautiful. And I am really lucky I get to study it.

So yes, she was right. It isn’t the same. And I don’t ever want to go back. So thanks for the advice!

Until then,

-M